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Prediction for CME (2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-14T10:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30856/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs (STEREO A gets first visible frame). Source is an unnumbered region of the solar disk, centered around N23E35. Starting around 2024-05-14T09:07Z, field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 alongside a diagonal region of light dimming spanning approximately N40E60 -> N15E30 across that center point. A distinct post-eruptive arcade forms around 2024-05-14T10:47Z across SDO AIA 131/171/193/211. Potential arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-15T08:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T12:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30858/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-34.0, Lat.=41.0, Speed=744.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2024-05-14T14:54Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-17T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.92 hour(s)
Difference: -10.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-05-14T18:45Z

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